Though the 20-1 morning line seems like a pipe dream given all he has to offer, something in the range of 12-1 or even 15-1 is realistic, and would still provide appealing value.Įpicenter: Epicenter comes into the Kentucky Derby as the divisional leader. With tactical speed and a smart pedigree for the Classic distance on both top and bottom, Cyberknife is a strong contender. Though he was well beaten in the Lecomte (G3), an allowance victory got this son of Gun Runner back on track and he won the Arkansas Derby (G1) with complete authority. Though not all of the favorites always run well, the winner is usually a horse who wins or finishes second in the final prep, and the superfecta usually contains several horses who are well-fancied in the wagering.Ĭyberknife: Cyberknife bloomed a little later than some of his fellow Derby contenders, but he has gotten good at the right time. These are the key contenders for the 2022 Kentucky Derby: LeadersĮspecially in the points era, the Kentucky Derby tends to be a formful race. And then, it could also be a good year for some off-pace horses to come home and at least get up for a piece of the action. A horse with tactical speed, who can sit just off the ones who really have to go, may get a plum trip. However, it means that a horse who needs the lead may be in tough. This does not mean that a horse with speed cannot win. Though speed tends to hold fairly well in the Kentucky Derby, there are a lot of speed horses who are entered in the race, and even more after an eleventh-hour decision by team Classic Causeway to put him back in the field. The Kentucky Derby field is now set, with 20 horses in the main field and two more on the Also Eligible list. But it could have been a lot better.BET KENTUCKY DERBY Kentucky Derby Pick Analysis Fortunately I still had $20W on AK and a $5 exacta box of who I thought were the best longshot closers (1-2-16-19) thinking all front runners should get cooked so it was a good day. I can't recall if it was Welsch's report specifically that swayed me but I did read it more than once. In other words I got off Nehro and onto Arch3 and it cost me a cool $1,000. So I switched one of my $6 exact boxes from 16-17-19 to 1-16-17. But around 2:00am as I was scouring every last minutia of information I became focused on the general opinion that Nehro's works did not look very good. Late friday night I was all set with my bets which were keyed around Soldat and AK equally. I am generally of the opinion (like many others) that feels the winner typically works well leading up to the race. I've been 'capping the Derby for 30 years and have had a lot of good scores though I've missed the last five until this year. Just to give you all a case in point, the morning work 'opinions' can work for you and against you. Now using that information was extremely helpful in creating winning tri and super tickets. If you go back and look, be honest, and give credit where it's due solely on what he said horses looked like while working, he said Animal Kingdom and Shackleford were the best. The point is that he's not wrong or right. He said Soldat liked the cool air and tended to get hot (as in Florida). I know he makes a pick and this year it was Soldat, but he didn't have much to say about Soldat in comparison to horses like AK, Shackleford and maybe Dialed In (but he was reserved about his stride and energy).

The key is to use your own handicapping skills in conjunction with Welsch's reports.

Maybe you should read what he was saying about Uncle Mo.his overall record on the derby and the breeders cup has been poor. maybe one of the 10 or 12 hosses he says are working well have won the derby on occasion, but generally he's wrong. He's a cool guy, but if you base your opinion on his workout opinions as a whole, his hosses usually run lousy.

Mike welsch derby clocker report